Apple's Generation Defining Hardware Opportunity

The iPhone has not improved in years. My conspiracy theory is Apple could ship iPhone 18 in a week if need be. They don't release phones at their true capability because they are running out of things to add.

Apple tries to fit everything into the phone/watch. They maximise the amount of technology and features possible. That might not be the best approach. My opinion is the Apple Watch does not need to do everything that it currently does. I would much rather a simpler device.

Apple needs a really good foundational model of its own. Zuckerberg is building his own hardware because he felt boxed in by Apple. Without its own foundational model, karma will come for Apple and the same will happen to them with Generative AI.

Meta is building hardware and coming for Apple's lunch. In 5 years, they will have an iPhone replacement. Not a phone but something that can replace it.

Startups like Humane, Rabbit, and Friend already sense an opportunity. Their popularity suggests people are ready for something new. They haven't nailed it just yet but another startup might.

From the outside looking in, I feel Apple is not doing enough to prepare for this future. I would build along these two verticals:

1. iPods for the AI age: Fun, AI-focused products that do a few things but do them the best. And also give Apple the leverage they seem to be constantly losing. Example of leverage would be the Steve Jobs music label negotiations.

2. A new category of product altogether that integrates the best learnings from 1 (probably some sort of glasses / no screen AI centric device). The Vision Pro is good but less is more with AI.